The nation's 205 health systems agencies (HSAs) are responsible for containing the rapidly rising costs of health services. Among the most costly are services for patients with End Stage Renal Disease (ESRD). In order to enable rational decisions regarding the need for new or improved facilities or services, planners need a more accurate means of predicting future incidence and prevalence of ESRD and the therapeutic services required by patients. Expanding work begun by the Missouri Kidney Program, University of Missouri Health Care Technology Center, and other investigators, it is proposed to construct models which can use epidemiological data to predict need for ESRD facilities, manpower and financial resources. Specifically, an initial population model and a resource consumption model will be constructed, and a preliminary feasibility study conducted relative to construction and validation of 3 other models. This will provide a forecasting tool for planners which is adaptable to differing areas and conditions. It will also help prevent duplication and consequent under-utilization of facilities and services, thus helping to contain costs.